The UK’s International Higher Education Commission has released a new report raising concerns about the long term stability of international student enrolment. Despite recent growth in numbers, the Commission warns that the current success may not last without careful planning and better use of data.

The report, called Updated International Education Plan, looks back at the UK’s 2019 international education strategy and suggests that changes are needed to protect the future of the sector.

Chris Skidmore, Chair of the Commission, says the UK must act quickly to avoid problems down the line. He points out that while international student numbers are currently high, much of this growth is due to short term factors. Without a long term plan, the numbers could fall just as quickly.

The report outlines several challenges that need attention.

First, there is a growing reliance on students from a small number of countries, especially India, China, Nigeria, and others in Asia. Students from the European Union are declining, and the overall diversity of student backgrounds is shrinking.

Second, more international students are enrolling in one year master’s programs. These programs are more expensive to promote and depend heavily on students from specific countries. If demand from these countries drops, some courses could be at risk.

Third, fewer international students are coming to the UK for undergraduate and postgraduate degrees, which could affect the future of academic research in the country.

Rising accommodation costs and higher dropout rates are also concerning. Students face increasing financial pressure, which can affect their ability to stay and succeed in their studies.

A major issue raised in the report is the lack of reliable data. Without consistent information on enrolments, student outcomes, and recruitment trends, universities and policymakers cannot make informed decisions. Better data is essential to support planning and to show the public the value international students bring to the UK.

The report also warns against making assumptions about student markets. It says that expecting countries like Nigeria to make up for declining numbers from the EU or China is unrealistic. International enrolment growth in recent years was largely due to the return of post study work rights in 2019, which attracted students from India, Pakistan, and Nigeria. But this growth may not continue without a strong, long term strategy.

Student markets are now less diverse than they were in the past. In 2000, countries like Greece and Ireland were top sources of students. Today, China and India account for over 40 percent of all international enrolments.

Many university programs rely heavily on international students. Some courses could face cuts or even closure if enrolment drops. This is especially true for one year master’s degrees that depend on students from specific regions.

The Commission recommends taking urgent action to protect the sector. This includes recruiting from a wider range of countries, improving data systems, and balancing enrolments across different types of programs.

Rebuilding relationships with EU countries is also important. Once stable, student flows from the EU may be more reliable than those from other regions.

The report closes with a warning that, unless the UK changes course, its higher education sector may face serious risks. Future growth cannot be guaranteed, especially with new visa rules taking effect in 2024 that will ban international students from bringing dependents.

In conclusion, Chris Skidmore emphasizes that enhanced data collection and strategic planning are critical to demonstrating the vital role international students play in the UK’s higher education system. A significant decline in enrolments could have far reaching consequences for the sector as a whole.
Souce: Nairametrics